Intraders favor Ron Paul over John McCain

[archerships]

Traders on the Intrade presidential futures market now offer better prices on Paul contracts than on McCain contracts. (EDIT: to win the Republican party nomination, not to win the election)

Original: craschworks - comments

Comments

Are you sure?

[other.livejournal.com]

2008.PRES.PAUL
Ron Paul to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 1.7 1.8 1.7 3403 +0.0

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M 1.9 2.0 2.0 20151 0

Re: Are you sure?

[crasch.livejournal.com]

Sorry, I was referring to the Republican primaries:

2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN
John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
M 4.4 4.7 3.9 143627 0

2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL
Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008
M 4.9 5.0 5.0 61156 +0.1

This makes no sense

[polyanarch.livejournal.com]

If anything R. Paul has a better chance of winning the presidential election WITHOUT gaining the Republican party nomination (because of a possible Libertarian party nomination) than McCain does. Pray tell me how in hell McCain could possibly win the presidency if he doesn't get the Republican nomination?

Therefore if Paul has a better chance of winning the Republican nomination then how does he have a worse chance than McCain in winning the election with McCain then out of the picture????

I just don't understand...

Maybe I'm missing something or just stupid.

Re: This makes no sense

[other.livejournal.com]

People are putting out money betting that Ron Paul will the election and yet you pick THAT as making no sense.

Re: This makes no sense

[polyanarch.livejournal.com]

HAHAHA!

Yeah. Like they would EVER let him win even if everyone voted for him...

Can you say "Yehaaaaw!"???

Re: This makes no sense

[the23.livejournal.com]

it is assumed that

P(paul wins given republican nomination) < P(mccain wins given republican nomination).