Yeaaaaah... kind of hoping that misses this area for the most part (a few reports I've seen have stated massive slides everywhere save for here and Portland). I got in on a pre-sale early last year, but I'm still edgy about potential slides in the market around these parts. Ah well, we'll see in a year, when I'm able to make a decision on to sell or to keep. I went by the rule of 3 and didn't overextend myself, so hopefully I should be a-okay. Here's hopin', at least.
However, www.thehousingbubbleblog.com is a compendium of serious articles, news stories and opinions from all over, and it will scare you enough.
Sold the house in January, so far the cash we received is on track to earn nearly 8% this year (over $40,000). Which is a good thing considering I quit my job after we closed escrow.
Sorry, they lost me at "renting is better than buying." And who the hell is renting "nice" houses in San Francisco for $1,800 a month?!?!
Yes, there are time periods of about five years when real estate in high population areas (like the LA example) have lost value, but over the long-term it's still the safest investment out there.
And this is coming from someone that kept crying that the bubble would burst when everyone else was saying it would only deflate a little.
I believe the author wrote that can rent a nice house in the San Francisco Bay Area for $1800/month, not necessarily San Francisco City proper. According to this page, the estimated median gross rent for 2005 is $1148. So $1800 now does not seem out of line:
You think that purchasing real estate with 10:1 (or higher) leverage is a safer investment than buying an stock market index fund with no leverage? You're a crazy man if you think this is true.
I can't speak to the city proper, but there's lots of decent places to live up here in Marin for $1,800. If you use the base number of money costs you $700/month per hundred thousand (and maybe it's a little lower right now because of interest rates, but that's a good back-of-the-envelope), that should get you a quarter of a million dollar place, but that same house will sell for closer to $800k.
You can do a lot with the interest on the $550k difference besides pay it to the bank.
Yeah, I rent for $950 and the owner wants more than $1M to sell. You'd think they didn't each arithmetic in this country, because that's not even uncommon. They'll have a rude awakening, the bubble here seems to be a magnitude of that up north, with no local economy to support it (relying almost entirely on foreign buyers and speculators).
The assertion that "realtors have a near-monopoly on sale price information" should immediatley leap out as a bit misleading. All that it takes is to check out the local property tax database. If we have one here in rural Smith county texas there is surely one you can check online in every real city.
That assumes property tax valuations approximate actual sales prices. A $500k property here might get listed with a value of $5k for the transfer tax and property taxes, and no one blinks. Cheating on taxes is a national sport. Although if a capital gains tax ever passes, this practice could really screw owners that later may have to declare a more realistic value.
You could also dig up mortgage data (harder but more reliable).
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archerships
no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 01:17 am (UTC)a year's a long time
Date: 2007-03-27 02:16 am (UTC)Re: a year's a long time
Date: 2007-03-27 02:29 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 01:45 am (UTC)However, www.thehousingbubbleblog.com is a compendium of serious articles, news stories and opinions from all over, and it will scare you enough.
Sold the house in January, so far the cash we received is on track to earn nearly 8% this year (over $40,000). Which is a good thing considering I quit my job after we closed escrow.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 07:03 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 03:25 am (UTC)Yes, there are time periods of about five years when real estate in high population areas (like the LA example) have lost value, but over the long-term it's still the safest investment out there.
And this is coming from someone that kept crying that the bubble would burst when everyone else was saying it would only deflate a little.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 03:50 am (UTC)http://www.bayareacensus.ca.gov/bayarea.htm
no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 05:47 am (UTC)In Marin, no problem
Date: 2007-03-27 06:42 pm (UTC)You can do a lot with the interest on the $550k difference besides pay it to the bank.
I rent
Date: 2007-03-31 07:57 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 07:01 am (UTC)The assertion that "realtors have a near-monopoly on sale price information" should immediatley leap out as a bit misleading. All that it takes is to check out the local property tax database. If we have one here in rural Smith county texas there is surely one you can check online in every real city.
no subject
Date: 2007-03-27 06:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2007-03-31 08:03 am (UTC)You could also dig up mortgage data (harder but more reliable).