Correlation != Causation

[archerships]

"There was once a cholera epidemic in Russia. The government, in an effort to stem the disease, sent doctors to the worst-affected areas. The peasants of the province of S_____ discussed the situation and observed a very high correlation between the number of doctors in a given area and the incidence of cholera in that area (i.e. more doctors were observed in cholera areas than elsewhere). Relying on this hard fact, they rose and murdered their doctors."

Franklin M. Fisher, The Identification Problem in Econometrics,
(New York: McGraw-Hill, 1966) pp. 2-3.

Comments

nice

[polyanarch.livejournal.com]

I heard that in 50 years ago China had this idea to wipe out social disease. Their method worked really well in the short time. Anyone who tested positive was killed.

Now they don't much like doctors in the back country even today.

I'm not sure if this is true or not but it makes a good story...

my quiz for all

[(Anonymous)]

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